Medicine related research includes numerous studies on the hazards of mortality and what risk factors are associated with these hazards. From these observations, inferences can be made about the underlying population and consequently inform medical guidelines for intervention.

New health interventions are usually based on these estimated hazards obtained from clinical trials. A lengthy lead time would be needed to observe their effect on population longevity.

In this sessional Professor Elena Kulinskaya will discuss her paper How Medical Advances and Health Interventions Will Shape Future Longevity which shows how estimated mortality hazards can be translated to hypothetical changes in life expectancies at the individual and population levels. The required calculations are illustrated by two examples of medical interventions and their impact on life expectancy, which are beta blockers in heart attack survivors and blood pressure treatment in hypertensive patients. The second example also illustrates the dangers of applying the results from clinical trials to much wider real life populations.