Cat Models: Useful Tools or Budget Sinkholes?

October 21, 2015

Šárka Černá – Aon Benfield Impact Forecasting

Matthew Jones – Director of Cat Risk Intelligence

Agenda

•Context

–Industry, what are catastrophe (Cat) models, why do we need them, platforms and vendors

•Uncertainty overview

–How much, sources, terminology

•Cat model structure and uncertainties

–Hazard, vulnerability, financial modelling, platform

•Uncertainty in the spotlight

–Examples of cat models uncertainty case studies

• What can be done to help deal with this uncertainty?