Chris Hare Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plc European Economist HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7991 2995 chris.hare@hsbc.com

The outlook for the UK • We expect sluggish growth, and low interest rates, to persist • But a ‘no deal’ Brexit or a global slump might lead to a UK recession (and policy stimulus) • In the long run, low growth, low inflation and low interest rates could be the norm