Seasonal mortality at older ages in England & Wales 1993-2016

by M. Hall* and R. Naqvi

Abstract 

The UK experiences higher deaths in the winter relative to the other seasons with the seasonal differences in mortality increasing with age. As the population ages it becomes increasingly important to understand seasonal mortality trends and the implications for an ageing population. This paper investigates seasonal mortality in England & Wales for ages 65-94 for all causes of death combined over the period 1993-2016 and by each major cause of death over the period 2001-2015. The reasons for higher deaths in winter are complex but influenza and cold/poor housing are recognised as major contributing factors. Government initiatives aimed at reducing the higher winter death rate are discussed. Females are more affected by seasonal differences in mortality than males experiencing a greater gap between summer and winter mortality rates than males. Mortality improvements differed between the seasons with the winter experiencing greater improvements over the period compared with the summer for both males and females. All the major causes of death, with the exception of neoplasms, continue to exhibit seasonal differences in mortality. Seasonal differences in mortality in England & Wales, therefore, remain important and should be considered when analysing and modelling mortality at older ages. 

Keywords: Seasonal mortality; Mortality improvements by season; Excess winter mortality 

Correspondence details *Correspondence to: Mary Hall, School of Mathematical Sciences, Dublin City University, Glasnevin, Dublin 9, Ireland. E-mail: mary.hall@dcu.ie