The CMI mortality projections model was first released in 2009 and is the UK industry model for assessing future mortality improvements. The COVID-19 pandemic posed a unique challenge for the CMI and other data-driven models, as this turbulent period for mortality was unlikely to be indicative of future trends. 

The latest version of the model, CMI_2024, contains the most fundamental changes to the model structure since CMI_2016 to deal with this issue, namely: 

Extending the existing age-period-cohort improvement to have three period terms, to reflect different trends in mortality at different ages, rather than one as in earlier versions of the model 

Modelling the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality by adding a “fitted overlay” to the APCI model, rather than using weights as in earlier versions 

Applying cohort constraints after fitting the model, rather than as part of the fitting process, to avoid distorting cohort components at intermediate ages 

Changing the algorithm used to fit the model to be quicker and more robust. 

In this session we will have a panel discussion featuring the CMI mortality projections committee and model users from across the industry, to discuss these changes to the model. Actuaries of all levels with an interest in mortality trends will benefit from this session. 

Speakers:

Roshan Tajapra, SCOR 

Caroline Roberts, Phoenix Group

Steven Baxter, Club Vita 

Cobus Daneel, CMI Mortality Projections Committee