Climate models have a fatal flaw – actuarial risk management does not have to
A flagship sessional research meeting on the criticality of including biodiversity in climate scenarios.
The prospect of a 2.5°C world grows and the impact of a world that is already passing 1.5°C is being felt. Coral reefs have passed their extinction tipping point. Iceland has declared the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as a national security threat.
However, the financial and humanitarian impacts of biodiversity loss both rival and exacerbate those of climate change. While using climate scenarios and models to assess impacts has become actuarial standard practice, a lack of integration with biodiversity risks means these are systematically and structurally incomplete.
The IFoA’s Biodiversity Scenarios Working Party has completed a landmark workshop reviewing the importance and availability of biodiversity scenario frameworks. The conclusion is stark: climate scenarios that ignore biodiversity dynamics are not fit for purpose.
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