This
session will be a panel discussion with senior actuaries from different sectors
of the market. The panellists will share their perspectives on questions such
as: what do you think are the biggest challenges posed by inflation over the
coming year? how have you adapted your reserving and capital processes to allow
for inflation? what lessons have you learned from managing inflation risk over
the past 12 months?
This
session will be a panel discussion with senior actuaries from different sectors
of the market. The panellists will share their perspectives on questions such
as: what do you think are the biggest challenges posed by inflation over the
coming year? how have you adapted your reserving and capital processes to allow
for inflation? what lessons have you learned from managing inflation risk over
the past 12 months?
I have a 28-year career in policing and have investigated many different types of crime including cyber-enabled and cyber-dependent crime. This has included offenders wishing to extort companies and be paid in Bitcoin or other digital currency. I have negotiated with cybercriminals on behalf of companies and I've also taught hostage negotiators what to consider when dealing in cryptocurrency as a commodity. I will briefly explain what Bitcoins are and how they work. I will encourage the audience to consider the ethics, difficulties and problems in paying bad actors in cryptocurrency from a company or via a cyber insurance policy.
The speakers have previously spent much time in working parties and member-interest groups, talking about data science and the future role of the actuary, from a theoretical perspective. This session will be an unvarnished look at the practical challenges encountered in building a market-leading Pricing Data Science Team within a large established insurer.
With ever-increasing reporting pressure (think IFRS 17), data volume, and HR challenges, the GI insurance market has contemplated the idea of, or even made attempts at, reserving automation. But many have found it challenging to deliver reserving transformation with the expected business value. In this presentation, we will discuss: typical automation approaches and their flaws how could you do it differently through alternative modelling approaches and wider considerations how might the reserving world of the future look. This presentation requires a basic understanding of reserving concepts.
Methods for estimating the reserve risk of incurred but not reported provisions are usually based on the assumption that these provisions were calculated using the chain ladder method. Thus, in practice, these methods relate to various ways of quantifying the prediction error of the chain-ladder estimates, often the bootstrap procedure of England and Verall (2011) for Mack’s chain-ladder method. On the other hand, incurred but not reported estimates are often quantified using exposure-based methods such as the Bornhuetter-Ferguson or Cape-Cod methods. We define bootstrap procedures for the Cape-Cod method, show how these can be applied and how the results compare to more established methods used in practice. We consider which of the methods are more appropriate for use in reserve risk estimation under Solvency II and accounting estimates in the context of IFRS 17, with a focus on stability and realism of the results. Finally, we provide R code to reproduce these methods on representative data. Practical outcomes Appreciate the mechanics of the Cape-Cod reserving method Understand how to perform Cape-Cod bootstrap Appreciate the pros and cons of the different bootstrap methodologies Understand the use of the methodology under IFRS 17 and considerations under SAM.
Neural network models have found successful applications in wide-ranging fields, from computer vision to natural language and generative text. Can it find a place in claims reserving? In this presentation, we will develop a reserving model step-by-step. Starting with a simple chain ladder, we gradually introduce incremental improvements, culminating with a probabilistic, mixture density, neural network on individual claims. This is a technical session, including both introductory and novel concepts, conducted by a member of the Machine Learning in Reserving Working Party. It should be of interest to actuaries at all levels in ML, especially those keen on the practical implementation of ML in the reserving process. Attendees will have access to an accompanying Python notebook with full workings for further reading, enabling them to fully replicate the models.
This webinar will be primarily from a reserving perspective and will cover: Timeline of key milestones: how the risk is developing Definition: what a typical claim looks like Parallels with asbestos, overlap with ‘legislative change’ ENIDs Relationship between climate litigation, ESG, class actions, social inflation Exposure-based approach – which LoBs, industry sectors, jurisdictions, tracking number of lawsuits, success rates in those Collaboration between legal, underwriting, claims, actuarial Practical steps/useful resources.
The last 12 months have seen the media’s constant desire for a crisis alight upon the cost of living in the United Kingdom. Whilst there are undoubtedly global factors driving near-term inflationary pressures, the insurance industry and the actuarial profession, with long-term thinking as a core capability, need to look beyond the hype and examine and understand the impact of this ‘crisis’ on all stakeholders. This talk will examine how actuaries in the insurance industry should consider responding to the reality of the cost of living through four lenses – managing the book; regulatory impacts and headwinds; end customer impact and implications for the design of insurance enterprise. Its core theme will be that, as with all such shocks to systems, the current cost of living episode will reward those that have placed long-term strategic thinking at the heart of their approach to the insurance market.
Why aren't the S & G routinely focussed on during ESG discussions? Although most firms have embedded economic, social and governance standards, there has been a heavy focus on environment with social and governance being left behind. However, there are so many elements of social and governance that companies should be considering including: - How to integrate social and governance into investment processes- How to create metrics that enable ESG to be at the heart of decision-making to enhance returns- What kind of ESG training might be required and what might audiences look like in this session we will discuss the above ESG considerations and look to provide solutions to these considerations. We will also look at why firms should focus on social and governance standards in the first place, share regulatory updates and potential risks that companies could face if they don't focus on social and governance standards. This will be a high-level interactive live session rather than a technical one. It should be of interest to actuaries of all levels with an interest in social and governance standards including senior actuaries and team leaders who are responsible for ESG and may be asking these same questions.